mystory - 11 may 2008

news one.

The Star: I'm up to it.

UMNO VP TS Muhyiddin has come out with the strongest indication yet that he would be contesting one of the top two positions in the December party polls.

He said he had received a lot of feedback from 'grassroots, advisers and proposers' who told him that it was time to move up the party hierarchy. As VP, a 'move up' would mean a challenge for the deputy presidency or presidency.

my thoughts:

This is the announcement that everybody has been waiting. Off late, the talk of leadership change has been very muted. so quite that some even questioned whether it would ever take place. this announcement surely puts the momentum back to full throttle.

there would be 3 senarios.

ONE, DS Najib stays loyal to PM Abdullah Badawi and defends his no. 2 position. therefore would fight-off the challenge from TS Muhyiddin. if that were to happen, i believe it would be a tough fight. but DS Najib would be the likely winner.

this senario favours PM Abdullah Badawi as nobody else would have the necessary clout to challenge him. not even Ku Li. many agree that he wont be able to get enough nominations for the top post. so PM Abdullah Badawi would remain as President. uncontested. and may then delay the transfer of power indefinitely.

but the interesting question is, who would PM Abdullah Badawi back in that fight between DS Najib and TS Muhyiddin? quietly of course. it is an open secret that, back in 2003, when he became PM, he was inclined to promote TS Muhyiddin as DPM, instead of DS Najib. not until Tun M 'intervened' by publicly saying that DS Najib should be the DPM. maybe this time around, PM Abdullah Badawi would get his wish after all.

TWO, DS Najib goes for the presidency and 'hand over' the no. 2 post to TS Muhyiddin - unless someone else do decide to contest for the post. so far nobody else has expressed any intention to do so.

In this senario, PM Abdullah Badawi certainly has the edge. simply because he has the advantage of being the incumbent. plus the quota system favours the incumbent. moreover, in the event of a 3-corner fight, (if both DS Najib and Ku Li manage to get enough nominations to fight PM Abdullah Badawi), PM Abdullah Badawi would likely be the winner - as the split between DS Najib and Ku Li would benefit PM Abdullah.

THREE, TS Muhyiddin jumps over DS Najib and goes straight for the top post. unlikely senario. i do not see this happening. but if that were to happen, again it favours PM Abdullah Badawi. and he would most probably be the winner.

this time around, i believe UMNO members would vote intelligently, with their conscience. and not be swayed by offer of money or positions of power. i would be counting on them to make the best decision for the party. for the Malays. for the country.

Today is UMNO's 62nd birthday. It is no coincidence that TS Muhyiddin has decided to make this all important announcement today. Every 11 may, UMNO members should take some 'time off'. and reflect on our contributions towards our party, our race and our country. TS Muhyiddin has done just that. and he has listened well.