Today is an important day. at least in the political world. Today is the last day of the ban on Anwar Ibrahim from contesting in an election. come tomorrow, he is a free man - truly free. the last shackle is finally coming off. and tonite keadilan is organising a big bash to celebrate.
in 1999, he went down fighting. the support for him was strong. no doubt about it. the BN took a beating in the ensuing election, especially UMNO. he went to jail for about 6 years and was released in 2004. (interesting fact: KJ himself went to Anwar's house to deliver his passport for him to go overseas to seek treatment for his back problem). he is now 60 years old. whether we like him or not, he is making a comeback. in a big way. So with this ban gone, what is his next move?
he has few options. ONE, he continues to be the de-facto leader of Pakatan Rakyat, without being in Parliament. very unlikely. he needs to be in parliament to legitimise his role as the leader of the opposition - prime minister in waiting. if he wants to be the prime minister, he has to be in parliament. no two ways about it. plus he wants to be visible and vocal. and parliament is the best place - it is the best speakers' corner in the country. so he has to be elected to parliament soon. he cant afford to wait till the next GE, as the political climate might change then. he has to capitalise on the current sentiment and attack, attack, attack!
so option TWO, get elected to parliament. for that to happen, there must be a by-election for a particular parliamentary seat. but where? there are three areas that have been bandied around - permatang pauh, lembah pantai and bandar tun razak. the MP for permatang pauh is his wife. whereas, the MP for lembah pantai is his daughter. and the MP for bandar tun razak is TS Khalid Ibrahim, the Selangor MB. permatang pauh is his stronghold. he was its MP for a long time when he was still with UMNO. his wife was called a reluctant politician when she took over the seat from him in 1999. but over the years, she somewhat became a symbol for women in politics. so she is an asset to keadilan. and Anwar may not want to sacrifice her. his daughter, nurul izzah represents the young generation. anwar also may not want to sacrifice her. therefore, the likely sacrifice is TS Khalid. TS Khalid is the MB of Selangor. it is a 'hot' position - with constant media and public scrutiny. he needs to focus on that job, without being distracted with other responsibilities. and last week he resigned as sec-gen of keadilan. is this the cue that he may also resigned as an MP? we will know soon.
then there is option THREE. force a by election in an area not represented by the opposition. how? get the incumbent to resign and jump ship. or wait for election cases to be decided by the court. the court may decide in their favour. why? simple. they would get an extra seat in Parliament. but this scenario is unlikely coz it is risky.
whatever he decides, one thing is for sure. our political scene would never be the same. ever. we pray for the best, prepare for the worst.
1 comment:
I'm sure there are other pawns amongst the PR MPs to be sacrificed apart from wife, daughter and TS K. Since anything can happen in our political scene nowadays, eg change of government before the next election, TS K will be important in a Federal role. But that would be jumping the gun.
Personally I am less afraid of the notion that the next govt may not be BN-led, but I am petrified that DS AI could be PM. Never mind hard facts and evidence, the guy just gives me the creeps. Sorry DS AI, but my speder sense tingles when I see and hear you...
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